Overview

On August 31st, the Florida Gators and the Miami Hurricanes will renew their storied rivalry in a season-opening football matchup. The two teams have a rich history, dating back to their first meeting in 1938. The rivalry is fierce, with both programs having periods of dominance, and the all-time series has seen its share of memorable moments.

Florida and Miami have played 56 times, with Miami leading the series 29-27. The rivalry has waned in frequency since the 1990s, but whenever the two teams meet, it captures national attention. The last time they faced off was in 2019, with Florida edging out Miami 24-20 in a closely contested game.

For the Gators, this game could set the tone for their season. Florida is in a bit of a rebuilding phase, and with a challenging schedule ahead, this might be one of their more winnable games. A loss here could spell trouble for the rest of the season, as the Gators will face a gauntlet of tough SEC opponents. A win, however, could provide a much-needed confidence boost and momentum heading into the heart of their schedule.

On the other side, Miami under head coach Mario Cristobal is looking to take a significant step forward. Cristobal has faced criticism for game management issues in the past, which have cost the Hurricanes in key moments. However, there's a lot of optimism around the program, with hopes that this could be the year they finally break through and secure a 10-win regular season for the first time since 2003. A victory against Florida would be a strong start toward achieving that goal and re-establishing Miami as a national contender.

The stakes are high for both programs, making this matchup one of the most anticipated games of the early college football season.

Betting Odds

The Florida Gators are heading into their matchup against the Miami Hurricanes with an FPI of 10.1, slightly edging out Miami's 9.6. According to the latest betting odds, the Gators are underdogs across multiple sportsbooks. For example, at DraftKings, the Gators are listed at +130 for a straight-up win (moneyline), while Miami is favored at -155. Similarly, BetOnline.ag has Florida at +135 and Miami at -155. FanDuel offers the Gators at +114, with Miami at -137.

Given these odds and the Gators’ slightly higher FPI, Florida presents a good value bet, especially considering their 60% win rate in our 100 simulations we ran. The home-field advantage further tilts the scales in Florida's favor, making them an attractive pick for an upset, especially with the favorable moneyline odds.

When considering other bets, one intriguing option is to wager on Florida’s quarterback, Graham Mertz, to throw more than 2 passing touchdowns. Mertz has the potential to exploit Miami's secondary, and with the Gators likely needing to air it out to secure a win, this bet offers good value.

As for the point spread, it’s set close, with Florida +3 at DraftKings and +2.5 at FanDuel. Betting on the spread in this matchup feels risky due to the close nature of the game. Instead of betting on Florida to cover a narrow spread, it might be more prudent to take the Gators on the moneyline for a more straightforward bet on the upset. The spread is too close to offer much value, and in such tight games, it’s often better to bet on the outright winner rather than trying to predict a margin within a few points.

Simulation Results